Hearing of citizens in municipality amalgamation

Forfattere: Nicholas Roxburgh, Rob J.F. Burton, Klaus Mittenzwei , J. Gareth Polhill

Cultivated protein (also called in vitro, lab-based, cultured protein) startups emerged in the 2010s in response to
technological advances in the medical/pharmaceutical sector alongside the global demand for more environmentally
sustainable food systems. Offering greenhouse gas reductions of up to 97 %, these technologies could
provide a means of rapidly reducing emissions from agriculture. However, heavy subsidisation of the livestock
sector in many countries puts them at a considerable disadvantage. In this paper we explore what would happen
if we rebalanced the equation through the introduction of a carbon tax on animal protein. Using an agent-based
approach (ABM) we develop a detailed model of agricultural systems in Norway and explore a number of cost
scenarios based around two main hypothetical events: the introduction of cultivated proteins without a carbon
tax and the introduction of cultivated proteins alongside a carbon tax. Simulations reveal that conventional beef,
lamb, milk, and egg production are more vulnerable to a steady loss of market share to cultivated protein than
pork and chicken production – regardless of whether a carbon tax is in operation. However, the introduction of a
carbon tax would result in a rapid and substantial decline in these sectors due to the dramatically increased costs
imposed on conventional producers and the triggering of tipping points along value chains. Conventional pork
and chicken sectors prove more robust due to their comparatively lower emissions. The overall conclusion is that
the introduction of a carbon tax alongside the emergence of a cultivated protein industry could have severe
impacts on the livestock sector that make the outcome politically unacceptable. Any global or Europe-wide
carbon tax could thus, paradoxically, limit the introduction of revolutionary new low-carbon food technologies
unless the introduction is carefully managed.

Cleaner Engineering and Technology, Volume 26, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clet.2025.100979

Writers: Rob J.F. Burton, Hugh Campbell 

Biotechnology promises a technological solution to the development of sustainable food systems – not by making practices in contemporary agriculture more sustainable, but by completely replacing large sections of the food and fibre value chain. Historical examples illustrate how substitution technologies can be devastating for the agricultural sector (e.g., alizarin and indigotin dyes), but also how they can have vastly differing and complex outcomes (e.g., margarine and vanillin). In arguing for a need for a greater understanding of substitution transitions, we investigate the impact of cellulose-based artificial fibres (rayon) on New Zealand’s wool industry between 1910 and 1955. Using a publicly available database of New Zealand newspapers the study constructs the history of events from reports at the time and, importantly, analyses the response of the wool growing industry to the emerging threat of product substitution. We identify price fluctuations in agriculture that favoured artificial fibre production, a failure of the wool industry to appreciate the new industrial attributes of artificial fibres, the structuring effects of surrounding wars, and the presence of narratives of non-response as having significant influences over the substitution. To illustrate the utility of the findings, we draw conclusions concerning how substitutions might develop in the future, focusing on the case of cultivated animal proteins.

Journal of Rural Studies, Volume 114, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2025.103578