PROTEIN 2.0: Overgangen til biosyntetisk protein: evaluering av effekter, utfall og muligheter for Norges post-animalske bioøkonomi

Forfattere: Nicholas Roxburgh, Rob J.F. Burton, Klaus Mittenzwei , J. Gareth Polhill

Cultivated protein (also called in vitro, lab-based, cultured protein) startups emerged in the 2010s in response to
technological advances in the medical/pharmaceutical sector alongside the global demand for more environmentally
sustainable food systems. Offering greenhouse gas reductions of up to 97 %, these technologies could
provide a means of rapidly reducing emissions from agriculture. However, heavy subsidisation of the livestock
sector in many countries puts them at a considerable disadvantage. In this paper we explore what would happen
if we rebalanced the equation through the introduction of a carbon tax on animal protein. Using an agent-based
approach (ABM) we develop a detailed model of agricultural systems in Norway and explore a number of cost
scenarios based around two main hypothetical events: the introduction of cultivated proteins without a carbon
tax and the introduction of cultivated proteins alongside a carbon tax. Simulations reveal that conventional beef,
lamb, milk, and egg production are more vulnerable to a steady loss of market share to cultivated protein than
pork and chicken production – regardless of whether a carbon tax is in operation. However, the introduction of a
carbon tax would result in a rapid and substantial decline in these sectors due to the dramatically increased costs
imposed on conventional producers and the triggering of tipping points along value chains. Conventional pork
and chicken sectors prove more robust due to their comparatively lower emissions. The overall conclusion is that
the introduction of a carbon tax alongside the emergence of a cultivated protein industry could have severe
impacts on the livestock sector that make the outcome politically unacceptable. Any global or Europe-wide
carbon tax could thus, paradoxically, limit the introduction of revolutionary new low-carbon food technologies
unless the introduction is carefully managed.

Cleaner Engineering and Technology, Volume 26, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clet.2025.100979

Forfattere: Klaus Mittenzwei, Wolfgang Britz og Rob Burton

Cultivated protein has the potential to provide animal protein-based food products in a much more environmentally sustainable way than conventional livestock production. A few products are now available on the market, yet little is known of what increasing market penetration by this potentially disruptive technology could mean for conventional agriculture and the food system as a whole. To address this issue, we simulate increasing market shares of cultivated protein-based food products in an economic model for Norwegian agriculture and evaluate environmental and economic impacts.

Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, Volume 55, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2024.100960